The surprising election of Donald Trump, who promise to unleash massive infrastructure spending and gigantic tax cuts, makes the interest rate on US bonds spiking.
Since Trump has been elected, the bond market has suffered a dramatic wave of selling that is very rare in recent history. In less than a week, bonds valued more than $1 trillion has been wiped, the only second biggest bond’s sell-off in the 2 last decades.
The dramatic movement in the market sent interest rates on US bonds spiking. The rate on 10-year Treasury notes has surged from 1.77% before the election to 2.3% just after. It’s actually making it more expansive for the federal government to borrow money. The repercussions could be even broader: The Treasuries are used as the benchmark for many other forms of credit, which means that the American people likely have to pay more for mortgage and car loans, which their rates should also rise. “A violent reaction” as some analysts described the situation.
So, what’s in Trump’s election, led to such a reaction in the bonds market? It’s a combination of few major forces, their source is in Trump’s economy’s vision, as been shown during his campaign. First of all, Trump has used to raise spending concerns among the analysts and economists, when declared in his victory speech “We are going to fix our cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals”. “The federal budget is already dangerously out of balance” said to CNN David Kelly, a chief strategist in JPMorgan, demonstrated the bond traders’ concerns about weather America can afford those Trump’s promised spending.
Not only Trump’s promises for spending money on infrastructure make traders to worry, but also his promises for massive tax cuts, that according to the Tax Policy Center, would reduce the federal revenue by $7 trillion on the first decade alone. Today the US debt stands on 104% of the national GDP, but according to the Responsible Federal Budget if Trump’s fiscal plans will take place, it would cause the debt to soar to 143% of the GDP.
The rates are rising also because the wide anticipation among the traders for interests rates hiking by the Fed next month, for the first time in a year. If Trump’s polices end up causing growth and inflation to tick up, it could cause the Fed to raise rates fast than previously expected.
So will the bond market reaction overdone soon? Possibly, but much will depend on what policies Trump administration will actually pursues. If the “violent reaction” will continue, the higher rates will make it more expensive for the US government to finance its increasingly-large debt load, as well as hurting the housing market, due to jump in the mortgage rates. The stock market, that so far hasn’t been concerned by the rip higher in bond rates, can be hurting too. Higher returns for risk-free Treasuries may make to investors think twice before betting on risky, even promise, stocks.